Aftereffects of Lai's U.S. Visit |
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According to an expert, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate William Lai's visit to the United States actually made people recognize his two-handed strategy to pursue "Taiwan independence."
(Photo from:
United Daily News) |
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Has Lai Made the U.S. Comfortable?
United Daily News, August 18, 2023
Vice President William Lai’s trip, on which he served as President Tsai Ing-wen’s special envoy to attend the inauguration ceremony of Paraguay’s president, came to an end. He concluded that they were “stable and responsible” on this trip and didn’t think of it as being“low-key,” including during the transit in New York and San Francisco. However, scholars believe it was discernible that Mr. Lai really attached great importance to this trip, and although he tried to act clever, they’re afraid he has only ended up with a blunder. The United States may not be relieved of his cross-strait stance, and Beijing is now more certain of his Taiwan independence position.
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According to media commentary, recent messages that mainland China might "eliminate" trade-related preferences under the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) may help observers infer the future direction of the mainland's Taiwan policy.
(Photo from:
China Times) |
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Elimination of ECFA Preferences Towards Taiwan Previews Cross-Strait Playbook
China Times Editorial, August 18, 2023
During Vice President William Mr. Lai’s foreign visit to Paraguay, mainland China’s Ministry of Commerce levied anti-dumping duties on polycarbonate imported from Taiwan and accused Taiwan of breaching WTO rules. China also expanded the investigation on the trade barriers imposed by Taiwan on 2,455 mainland products. The zero-tariff preference enjoyed by polycarbonate in accordance with the early harvest list of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed by the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has been cancelled. The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council also implied that the preferential tariffs in ECFA's early harvest list may also be cancelled in total. This is the clearest message sent by Beijing on ECFA up to date.
…read more
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20230818003443-262101?chdtv
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According to media commentary, the Taiwan Power Company may lose up to NT$400 billion (about US$12.5 billion) and face bankruptcy. This is largely due to the DPP using green energy as a power to hollow out state-owned enterprises.
(Photo from:
United Daily News) |
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DPP's Green Energy Profit Formula
United Daily News Editorial, August 15, 2023
Recently, two pieces of news related to energy have caught public attention and sparked widespread discussion. First, Taiwan Power Company (Taipower), a state-owned power company, is projected to incur losses of NT$400 billion (about US$12.5 billion) this year, which could potentially lead to bankruptcy due to exceeding its total capital. Second, a verbal dispute between internet celebrity Holger Chen, known popularly as “Kuan Chang,” and Legislator Lai Pin-yu of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) brought to light the issue that Legislator Lai's father Lai Ching-lin represented 18 green energy companies that sells electricity to Taipower. Chen severely criticized the DPP, alleging that the entire party is unfairly benefiting from the green energy industry. However, J&V Energy Technology Company clarified that Mr. Lai’s ownership stake is only 1 percent, and the Company is not a Lai family business. These two matters might seem unrelated, but the fact that the ruling DPP has a substantial interest in 18 green energy companies reveals a connection to the financial woes of Taipower.
…read more
From: https://udn.com/news/story/7338/7369378
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Polls indicate that support for Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has stabilized and surpassed that of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) Ko Wen-je. This is also the first time since being recruited as presidential candidate in May that Mr. Hou is leading among opposition contenders.
(Photo from: The Storm Media) |
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August 14: Hsinchu Mayor Kao Hung-an, who is affiliated with the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), was reported last year for allegedly fraudulently receiving office expenses while serving as legislator. The Taipei District Prosecutor's Office concluded its investigation and indicted Kao and five assistants in accordance with the Anti-Corruption Act and Criminal Code. Kao's indictment may affect the TPP's electoral performance in Hsinchu and even impact whether her former boss, Terry Gou, founder of Hon Hai Precision Industry Company (Foxconn), runs independently for president.
August 15: Responding to the label of "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker" in a televised interview with Bloomberg, Vice President William Lai responded for the first time that there is "no path to independence" because Taiwan is a sovereign state named the Republic of China. He will continue President Tsai Ing-wen's usage of the "Republic of China (Taiwan)" and not change the country name. According to Lai, his pragmatism means that Taiwan is already a sovereign state named the R.O.C. and not part of the People's Republic of China; the R.O.C. and P.R.C. are not subordinate to one another, so there is no need to declare independence again. He also stated that the international red line is Taiwan's red line.
In response to Lai's transit via the United States causing rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. aircraft carrier Reagan Strike Group was deployed off the eastern coast of Taiwan.
August 15: Mainland China's Ministry of Commerce announced that it will impose an "anti-dumping duty" of 16.9 percent to 22.4 percent on Taiwan's polycarbonate. According to statistics from the Ministry of Finance, polycarbonate exports amounted to about US$1.06 billion in 2022, of which US$830 million were exported to the mainland. This move will make related products lose competitiveness in mainland China. Analysts point out that polycarbonate is an item on the early harvest list of the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Observers will pay attention to whether the move is meant to withdraw certain trade preferences on the early harvest list without changing ECFA.
August 16: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lai Pin-yu recently criticized Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih's energy policy, which brought her father Lai Chin-lin's position as chairman of the J&V Energy Technology Company into public discussion. The KMT and TPP criticized the senior Lai as head of 19 green energy companies, which provide political contributions to the DPP, for exploiting green energy policies to reap benefits.
August 17: According to the latest presidential poll released by Formosa newsletter, DPP presidential candidate William Lai won 35.7 percent, securing first place. The Kuomintang's (KMT) Hou Yu-ih received 21.9 percent, surpassing the TPP's Ko Wen-je (21.7 percent). This is the first time since being recruited as the presidential candidate in May that Mr. Hou has assumed the leading position among opposition candidates. Based on an analysis by age, Mr. Ko is losing his absolute advantage among young voters.
According to a poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, some 56.6 percent of voters are optimistic about Mr. Lai's election, reflecting the political judgment of voters as a societal consensus and a contest between a united ruling party against a divided opposition camp.
August 18: In April, mainland China's Ministry of Commerce launched an investigation into Taiwan's trade barriers. The preliminary investigation results indicate that Taiwan has imposed trade barriers against the mainland, and it will study the suspension or partial suspension of tariff preferences for Taiwanese products under ECFA in accordance with relevant regulations. The Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council expressed support.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs responded that Taiwan did not violate World Trade Organization (WTO) regulations, and that China's move is politically motivated. Taiwan is willing to discuss relevant trade issues under the WTO framework.
August 18: The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Executive Yuan, updated its latest economic forecast. Taiwan's economic growth rate for the whole year is now estimated at 1.61 percent, the lowest figure in eight years and well below the target threshold of 2 percent. The chief reasons are weak global terminal demand and prolonged digestion of inventory, which significantly reduced the annual economic growth rate estimate from 2.04 percent in May by 0.43 percentage point. The DGBAS released its initial estimate for economic growth in 2024 as 3.22 percent.
August 20: Taiwan has been dubbed a "pedestrian hell" by CNN, and civil rights groups launched a demonstration to "return the roads to the people" to appeal for pedestrian rights, attracting tens of thousands of participants. William Lai, Hou Yu-ih, Ko Wen-je, as well as Terry Gou, who are interested in running for president, all came to support the event. Minister of Transportation and Communications Wang Kuo-tsai admitted that he did not perform well in his role and bowed during the demonstration to apologize. He promised to fulfill the demands of the civic groups, including reducing pedestrian accidents by half by 2030 and attaining zero pedestrian deaths by 2040.
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