ISSUE 246                                                                                      May 30, 2024
Taiwan Weekly
Reliable report and analysis of the most important issues in Taiwan
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Lai's Tough Style Provokes Domestic and Cross-Strait Tensions
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According to media commentary, President Lai Ching-te's new "Two-State Theory" inaugural address immediately triggered mainland Chinese military exercises around Taiwan. Not only does President Lai's narrative fail to keep peace in the Taiwan Strait, it also risks Taiwan's embarking the path of Ukraine and Gaza. 
(Photo from: United Daily News)
Featured Editorial

PLA Military Exercises Encircle Taiwan After President Lai Touted New "Two-State Theory"

United Daily News Editorial, May 24, 2024    

 

On President Lai Ching-te’s fourth day in office, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) announced the exercises, code named "Joint Sword-2024A", to combat the arrogance of Taiwan independence and deter the interference and intervention of external forces. President Lai's inaugural address featuring a “Two-State Theory” immediately provoked military exercises encircling Taiwan by mainland China. If President Lai cannot seek cross-strait dialogue and reconciliation to ensure the safety of the Taiwan Strait, does he really intend to lead Taiwan onto the battlefield like the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas wars. 

Featured Editorial
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According to a commentator, before President Lai's inaugural address on May 20, the United States had hoped to engage in preventive diplomacy. However, given mainland China's strong reaction to Lai's speech, both the United States and China have compromised their strategic mutual trust. 
(Photo from: The Storm Media)

Inaugural Speech Damages U.S.-China Strategic Mutual Trust

By Kuo Chung-lun

United Daily News, May 24, 2024 

 

Before May 20, American officials made many trips to Taiwan and mainland China, hoping that preventive diplomacy could work, but Beijing still reacted strongly to President Lai Ching-teh’s inaugural address and conducted military exercises. The mainland’s reactions exceeded U.S. expectations for three possible reasons: First, the United States had read President Lai’s speech but did not explain it to the mainland. Second, President Lai’s decision-making circle intentionally lied by revising the speech without telling the United States. Third, the United States did not comprehend the full meaning of Lai’s speech and did not communicate well to the mainland side so the latter misunderstood and thought that there would no problem. 

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From: https://vip.udn.com/vip/story/121523/7987058 

Featured Opinion
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According to a commentator, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is now a "double minority" government but continues to ignore public opinion by opposing the five legislative reform bills in the Legislative Yuan. President Lai may consequently lose both the legislative vote and public support. 
(Photo from: China Times)

Lai's Opposition to Legislative Reform Collides with Public Opinion

By Su Ho

China Times, May 24, 2024  

 

To oppose the bills on legislative reform, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) not only staged a physical altercation in the Legislative Yuan recently but also mobilized various civic groups for a rally at the legislature. Additionally, the DPP enlisted two former directors of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) among other "international scholars" to criticize the bill as "unconstitutional." Overnight, it seemed as if Taiwan had regressed to the pre-democratic era, with legislative reforms reliant on mobilizing citizens and foreign nationals for protests. 

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From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20240524004437-262104 

This Week in Taiwan
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According to a latest poll released by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, 58 percent support the "contempt of parliament" bill advocated by the opposition parties, while only 29 percent oppose it.
(Photo from: United Daily News)

May 20: President Lai Ching-te was inaugurated. Unlike former President Tsai Ing-wen, who emphasized handling cross-strait affairs based upon the Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area during her inauguration eight years ago, President Lai stated that the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to each other and called on China to face the existence of the R.O.C.

Mainland Chinese official media launched an intensive campaign against President Lai's speech. Xinhua News Agency characterized his speech as promoting Taiwan independence and openly advocating a "Two-State Theory." It also claimed that President Lai's stance on independence surpassed that of former presidents Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Tsai.

May 21: Former President Ma Ying-jeou expressed concern that President Lai's inaugural address immediately posed unpredictable risks and challenges to cross-strait relations. Ma urged Lai to revise the new "Two-State Theory" mentioned in his speech and to avoid self-deception. Ma emphasized that according to the R.O.C. Constitution, Taiwan and the mainland are not two separate countries, and Taiwan will not move towards independence. Adhering to the constitutional cross-strait framework is essential to avoiding conflict.

May 21: The Department of State "welcomed" President Lai Ching-te's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and the status quo in cross-strait relations. The United States reaffirmed that its "One China" policy has not changed and will not change. When asked by Taiwan media about the Kuomintang's (KMT) criticizing President Lai's inaugural address for endorsing a "Two-State Theory," Spokesman Matthew Miller did not express an official position and suggested directing inquiries to the Taiwan authorities.

May 22: Beijing implemented a series of countermeasures against the United States over Taiwan-related issues. First, it announced sanctions on American companies, including Boeing Defense, Space & Security, General Atomics, and General Dynamics Land Systems, prohibiting them from engaging in activities related to China and imposing restrictions on new investments. Later, China also sanctioned former House Representative Gary Ackerman and simultaneously targeted 12 American defense companies and 10 executives.


May 22: Secretary of State Pietro Parolin of the Holy See expressed that the Vatican hopes to establish a permanent representative office in China. If realized, this would be a significant upgrade in relations between the Vatican and Beijing. The Vatican is currently Taiwan's only remaining diplomatic ally in Europe, and whether the relationship will change has caused concern. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized robust diplomatic relations.

May 23: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command conducted a two-day military exercise called "Sword 2024A." The PLA emphasized that this exercise serves as a strong deterrent against Taiwan's pro-independence forces and a serious warning to external powers interfering or provoking. The exercise covered Taiwan's surrounding waters and marked the first time it extended into restricted areas near Wuqiu and Dongyin islands. Additionally, mainland China's Maritime Safety Administration announced plans for further military training and missions in the South China Sea and Yellow Sea. The United States Department of Defense criticized China's actions as reckless and heightening tensions.

May 24: The Legislative Yuan's continued review of legislative reform bills saw heated clashes among political parties. After two late-night sessions, the bills passed second reading. The legislation includes provisions for penalizing officers who defy interpellation or show contempt for the Legislative Yuan, with fines up to NT$200,000 (about US$6,214). Additionally, the Legislative Yuan will adopt named voting for political appointments, with a minimum review period of one month.

May 24: The Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation released a recent poll on the "contempt of parliament" provision in the legislative reform bill. The survey found that 58 percent of respondents support the legislation, while 29 percent do not. The opposition's push for this provision has resonated strongly with the public, while the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has failed to secure both the Legislative Yuan’s vote and the people’s favor.

Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations which provides coverage and perspectives on the latest developments in Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.

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