ISSUE 224                                                                            December 21, 2023
Taiwan Weekly
Reliable report and analysis of the most important issues in Taiwan
In This Issue
● This Week in Taiwan: 
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Publishers

Is Taiwan Prepared to Face China's Economic Sanctions?
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According to media commentary, Taiwan's economy and politics will surely be impacted by potential trade sanctions imposed by mainland China. But is Taiwan ready?
(Photo from: China Times)
Featured Editorial

Prelude to Trade Sanctions Against Taiwan

Commercial Times Editorial, December 16, 2023 

 

Results of the trade barrier investigation by mainland China, initially scheduled for release on January 12 next year, were unexpectedly disclosed ahead of time on December 15, leaving Taiwan in speculation and commotion. While our government denounces this move by the mainland, citing political motives, it also asserts that their investigation doesn't align with facts, and Taiwan categorically rejects it. The ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) consistently criticizes the mainland, claiming it aims to intimidate Taiwan's economic voters. However, regardless of these criticisms, a fundamental question remains unanswered: Is Taiwan prepared for economic sanctions from the mainland? 

Featured Editorial
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According to media commentary, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate William Lai will be a weak president if he barely wins the 2024 election due to the unpopularity of President Tsai Ing-wen's administration and the ambiguity of his policy direction.
(Photo from: China Times)

Why Has Lai's Presidential Campaign Been So Challenging?

United Daily News Editorial, December 16, 2023 

 

As the incumbent vice president and chairman of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), William Lai seems to be running a challenging campaign despite full support by his party and the current administration. Although he has always been ahead in the polls, the gap has never widened; even with the collapse of the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) alliance talks and the announcement of Ambassador Bi-khim Hsiao, former representative to the United States, as his running mate, Mr. Lai still cannot let his guard down, because the runner-up, the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and Jaw Shaw-kong ticket, is catching up. Lai is regarded as the “golden grandson of Taiwan independence” and “the chosen one.” Why can he not win the wholehearted favor of voters? Several reasons can explain his difficult campaign. 

read more

From: https://udn.com/news/story/7338/7644565 

Featured News
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According to media polls, after the breakup of Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) alliance talks, the TPP's "Ko-Wu" ticket has consistently fared third place. TPP Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je, who has rallied to overcome traditional partisan divisions, faces the danger of being abandoned by both KMT and DPP supporters.
(Photo from: United Daily News)

Will Ko Be Abandoned by Voters in the End?

United Daily News, December 10, 2023  

 

News trends have changed greatly since the registration of presidential candidates and the formal formation of a three-way race. In the past two weeks, Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, who had been mostly ranked third in opinion polls, rose to second place after the collapse of the cooperation between the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and his choice of Mr. Jaw Shaw-kong as his running mate. The Hou-Jaw ticket’s support follows closely behind that of the frontrunners William Lai and Bi-khim Hsiao of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and is within the margin of error. The TPP’s Ko Wen-je and Wu Hsin-ying ticket fell to the third place and many polls showed that their support has fallen below 20 percent. Mr. Ko, who originally planned to transcend KMT and DPP, may become a double loser under strategic voting. It is not surprising judging from past electoral experiences. 

read more

From: https://vip.udn.com/vip/story/123104/7630801 

This Week in Taiwan
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According to Robert Sutter, a professor at George Washington University, if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2024, it may create uncertainties surrounding the China policy of the United States and even have an adverse impact on Taiwan.
(Photo from: The Storm Media)

December 11: Cross-partisan negotiations on a draft bill to tighten security at military facilities have been completed, and legislation is expected in the near future. The proposed legislation empowers the Armed Forces to define military camps as wherever troops conduct military exercises; the military can control, expel, prosecute, and fine "violators" such as those who take unauthorized photos; it can even search social media or material published by the media afterward if the content is considered to have security concerns; fines may even be issued and legal action taken. The bill has attracted scrutiny about expansion of the executive powers.

 

December 11: The military security corps of the Ministry of National Defense and the Taiwan High Prosecutor's Office jointly cracked a spy case at the end of July. Seven active-duty officers found involved are now being prosecuted. According to information provided by the prosecution cited by a news weekly, Communist China promised that the officers involved would receive an award of US$15 million for successfully landing the CH-47SD Chinook on the People's Liberation Army (PLA) aircraft carrier Shandong.

 

December 11: Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih announced his platform on national defense and foreign policy. He proposes to create a deterrent military force through 10 major projects. He will announce a "National Security Strategy" of the Republic of China (Taiwan) within 10 months of taking office and will make concrete a three-dimensional strategy (deterrence, dialogue, and reduction of risk) and deepen military exchanges with the United States. Additionally, he plans to establish under the Executive Yuan a National Defense Mobilization Committee chaired by the vice premier to improve military education and increase the budget by millions to raise the monthly salary of volunteer military personnel by NT$10,000 (about US$318).

 

December 12: Robert Sutter, a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, opined in the Diplomat that no matter who is elected in Taiwan's 2024 presidential election, U.S. policies will remain consistent. What is more important is the American election. If former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, his "America First" principle and unpredictable behavior will cast a variable on Washington's policy on the Taiwan Strait and may even pose an adverse impact on Taiwan.

 

December 14: The Central Bank announced its latest forecast, revising down Taiwan’s economic growth rate this year to 1.4 percent from 1.46 percent, while the forecast for next year has been raised to 3.12 percent from 3.08 percent. In terms of prices, the Central Bank predicts that the annual growth in the consumer price index (CPI) this year will be 2.46 percent, and it will fall to 1.89 percent next year, below the 2 percent threshold.

 

Although the Federal Reserve has stated that it will cut interest rates three times next year, Governor Yang Chin-lung of the Central Bank has not disclosed additional any information, only saying that the interest rate cycle is coming to an end.

 

December 15: Taiwan's five major electronics firms are decentralizing production bases. In addition to Hon Hai (Foxconn), Pegatron, and Wistron, which have already set up plants in India, contract manufacturer Compal Electronics will also move to India due to the request of communications customers. Compal General Manager Wong Chung-pin confirmed that the group is indeed considering the option, but no official decision has been made yet.

 

December 15: Mainland China's Ministry of Commerce announced in advance a trade barrier investigation against Taiwan after officially determining that Taiwan's restrictive measures constitute "trade barriers." In the future, it can respond through bilateral consultations, a multilateral dispute settlement mechanism, and "other appropriate measures."

 

The Executive Yuan responded that China's unilateral trade barrier investigation and investigation results against Taiwan violate World Trade Organization (WTO) mechanisms and norms and are completely inconsistent with the facts. Taiwan will not accept it and calls on China to immediately stop political manipulation.

 

December 15: Both houses of the United States Congress have successively passed the National Defense Authorization Act for the next fiscal year. The budget of more than $800 billion includes plans to increase salaries for soldiers, respond to competition from China, support the AUKUS initiative, and assist Taiwan in strengthening its self-defense capabilities. The next step will be to submit the bill to the White House for President Joe Biden to sign into law.

Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation and Association of Foreign Relations which provides coverage and perspectives on the latest developments in Taiwan.

The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s) and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.

This message was sent to kitty@fairwindsfoundation.org by taiwanweekly2019.gmail.com@email.benchmarkapps.com
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