President Tsai Gambles with "Taiwan Independence" on National Day
By Teng Feng
China Times, October 7, 2023
Before the last National Day celebration in President Tsai Ing-wen's tenure, former President Ma Ying-jeou unexpectedly announced that he would not be attending the celebration activities this year. This marks the first time in four decades that Mr. Ma has chosen to be absent from the National Day celebrations. According to Ma, the primary reason for this decision is the administration’s continued usage of “Taiwan National Day” over the “Republic of China National Day” in English to refer to the holiday on October 10.
Two years ago, the Tsai administration began using the name "Taiwan National Day." Despite Mr. Ma's public appeals last year, urging President Tsai to stop using "Taiwan National Day," the administration did not respond to his requests. Given the changing internal and external circumstances of Taiwan this year, Mr. Ma decided to no longer tolerate the situation and refrained from participation. He criticized the actions of the Tsai administration as a clear endorsement of the "Taiwan independence" agenda. These measures taken by the Tsai administration not only deviate from the constitutional framework and breach the commitment made during President Tsai’s inauguration but also pose a threat to the security of the Taiwan Strait.
Regrettably, in response to Mr. Ma’s concerns, Spokesperson Lin Yu-shan of the Office of the President appeared to downplay the issue and offered a statement emphasizing the importance of unity and a desire to avoid further ideological divisions. However, the fact remains that Mr. Ma had consistently attended the National Day celebrations over the past 40 years, regardless of whether it was during the administrations of previous presidents Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, or current president Tsai Ing-wen. This was done as a gesture of respect for the constitution and to maintain unity. Ironically, it was Tsai who had frequently been absent from the celebrations during Mr. Ma's presidency, with her only attendance occurring in 2015.
Mr. Ma's absence from the National Day celebration is a clear indication of his refusal to endorse the "indirect" or "covert" path of "Taiwan independence." He believes it is essential to maintain a firm stance and distance himself from any "Taiwan independence" approach.
Many people in Taiwan often criticize Ma for getting too close to mainland China. However, at the same time, many individuals in mainland China also criticize Mr. Ma for being too friendly with the United States and Japan. Despite his strong sense of Chinese heritage and intellectual background, Ma remains a strong believer in the “Republic of China.” During his time in office, he not only maintained peaceful and stable relations with mainland China but also cultivated close and friendly ties with the United States and Japan. He followed a policy of "reconciliation with the mainland, pro-American, and friendly towards Japan.” While some in mainland China might view this as diplomatic maneuvering, it was, in fact, a pragmatic strategy that allowed Taiwan to navigate successfully in international relations.
For mainland China, despite the inherent contradiction between Ma's emphasis on the "Republic of China" and the existence of the “People's Republic of China,” China is willing to tolerate Ma’s political stance, given their primary objective of opposing "Taiwan independence." However, the situation is now different with President Tsai. While she initially claimed to uphold the R.O.C. Constitution, over the past seven years, she has consistently taken steps to hollow out and distance Taiwan from the "Republic of China." She has continuously worked towards "de-Sinicization," reducing the mental and historical connections between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. She has repeatedly emphasized the threat from mainland China and sought to counter it through cooperation with the United States and Japan. As a result, during President Tsai's tenure, cross-strait relations have shifted dramatically away from the stability and peace seen during Ma's era and returned to a state of tension, coldness, and confrontation as in the periods under former presidents Lee and Chen.
Nonetheless, the power gap across the Taiwan Strait continues to grow. In the present day, the economic and military gaps between the two are fundamentally distinct from the eras of Lee and Chen. Nowadays, there is less space for Taiwan on the international stage. Simultaneously, nationalist sentiments in mainland Chinese society and calls for reunification are on the rise. The considerable uproar provoked in mainland Chinese public opinion by Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last year serves as a clear indicator that tolerance is decreasing for "Taiwan independence" actions within mainland Chinese discourse.
Not long ago, Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, known for his realist analysis, assessed that the likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is higher due to political factors than military ones. If Taiwan were to declare independence, mainland China would undoubtedly find it unacceptable. Conversely, if Taiwan can refrain from pursuing "Taiwan independence" and avoid provoking mainland China, the current situation can be maintained. Stable and peaceful cross-strait relations align with not only the overall interests of mainland China but also those of Taiwan.
By adopting a pragmatic approach and handling cross-strait relations with reason, there is a chance that a favorable resolution to the Taiwan Strait issue can be achieved in the future. In contrast, if the intensifying tensions that have persisted during President Tsai's seven years in office are left unchecked, the ultimate consequences would be hard to bear.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20231007000093-262110?chdtv