No. 19, December 19, 2019

According to United Daily News, 45 percent of Taiwanese voters believe that the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) raising Internet army is undermining elections.
(Photo from: United Daily News Poll Center)

● Featured News: 45 Percent Voters: DPP Breeding of Cyber Army Negatively Affecting Election Atmosphere

● Featured Editorial: Big Differences Dealing with Internet Army
● Featured Opinion: With Internet Army Backfiring for Tsai, Crisis Emerges for DPP
● Featured Opinion: Gathering Storm over the Taiwan Strait
● This Week in Taiwan: Other Important Events This Week

45 Percent Voters: DPP Breeding of Cyber Army Negatively Affecting Election Atmosphere

United Daily News, December 10, 2019

 

With only 32 days counting down until the presidential election, the incident involving Internet celebrity Yang Hui-ju continues to develop. The poll conducted by United Daily News regarding the presidential election revealed that a majority of voters think that both breeding of cyber armies influencing public opinion and inaccurate opponent defamation are serious issues in this presidential election. Among them, those who found that it is mainly Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) buying cyber-warriors and discrediting their opponents, each account for 45 percent and 48 percent votes. Those who felt that the problem is more serious with the Kuomintang (KMT) account for nearly 20 percent.

 

The competition between the DPP and the KMT in this presidential election is intensely fierce, with countless negative election tactics used. The survey found that for 35 percent of voters, during this election season, the act of buying cyber armies to influence public opinion is an extremely serious issue, while 18 percent felt that it is quite serious. Combined, a total of 53 percent of voters think that buying cyber armies to influence public opinion in this presidential election is a burning issue. Only 15 percent of those surveyed felt that it’s not serious, while 33 percent had no opinion.

 

Of the voters who felt that the buying of cyber armies in this election was serious issue, 45 percent felt that the DPP should take the main responsibility for breeding cyber armies to influence public opinion. 19 percent felt that the KMT’s situation of buying cyber armies is more serious. One (1) percent places the responsibility on other parties, while 35 percent had no opinion.

 

DPP main culprit behind defamation, 48% believes

 

In terms of false and malicious attacks against their opponents, 33 percent of voters believe that the situation is very severe in this election, 20 percent find that it is quite serious. In total, 53 percent of voters think that the defamation of opponents during this presidential election is a serious problem at hand. Only 23 percent believe that it is not a serious issue, while 25 percent of those surveyed have no opinion.

 

Of the voters who believe that the defamation situation during this presidential election is severe, 48 percent think that it is mainly the DPP spreading defamation, 18 percent felt that the situation of KMT defamation of opponents is even more severe, one (1) percent blame it on other parties, and 33 percent had no opinion regarding the matter.

 

Problem of bought cyber-warriors is serious, says 36% undecided voters

 

Further analysis reveals that although supporters of the DPP’s Tsai/ Lai ticket think that it is mainly the KMT buying cyber armies and discrediting opponents, respectively 36 percent and 42 percent, but respectively also nearly 20 percent thought that the DPP’s act of negative election control tactics are even more serious.

As for Han and Chang supporters, close to or more than 80 percent believe that the DPP is worse in regards of buying cyber armies and defaming their opponents.

 

It is worth noting that amongst the voters who have not yet stated their stance on the presidential election, 36 percent believe that the problem of buying cyber armies is very serious, of which 45 percent blamed the DPP. Forty-five (45) percent thought the case of defaming opponents is very serious, with 43 percent finding the DPP is more at fault. It will take further observation to see whether this situation of an overall negative election atmosphere will affect the voters’ decision.

 

The poll was conducted during the evenings from December 5 to December 7 and successfully surveyed 1,157 eligible voters, while 278 denied participation. With a confidence level of 95 percent, the sampling error is within plus or minus 2.9 percent.

 

The poll selected both home phones and mobile phones nationwide for random sampling. To mitigate the disadvantages of the traditional random sampling of home phones only, cell phones users were also added, and results were weighed according to sex, age, and locality. The poll was funded by United Daily News.

 

From: https://udn.com/news/story/11311/4216314

Yang Hui-ju, who has close relations with the ruling DPP, is now being prosecuted for raising cyber-warriors.
(Photo from: United Daily News)

Big Differences Dealing with Internet Army

United Daily News, December 15, 2019

 

Eliminating the influence of Internet armies has accidentally become a new battlefield in Taiwan’s 2020 presidential and legislative elections. After PTT (a Taiwan bulletin board system) removed pro-President Tsai Ing-wen’s cyber-warriors and after the Taipei District Prosecutors Office certified that Yang Hui-ju, a controversial Internet figure, has cultivated cyber-warriors, Facebook removed fan pages and groups that supported the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) presidential candidate Han Kuo-yu. While Facebook emphasized that the removal was to safeguard Taiwan’s values of democracy and freedom, discussions of political conspiracy were widespread. Although it seems that both the KMT and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have attacked, the nature behind their removal efforts differs greatly.

 

To examine the three Internet army incidents: PTT’s purpose is academic in nature, and it expects to build an equal, open, and free space for freedom of speech, so it is necessary to expel cyber-warriors who used unfair methods to mislead the directions of opinions. Among the irregular PTT accounts, 90 percent, or as many as 700 accounts belonged to President Tsai’s Internet army, including Yang’s cyber-warriors

 

More controversially, after exposure of personal connections and flows of money, the public became alarmed that Yang has used the ruling DPP to win government’s biddings and her cyber-warriors then helped DPP personnel to lobby for favors; therefore, Yang’s cyber-warriors can be considered as genuine guards for the green camp.

 

In comparison, while Facebook removed fan pages and groups according to its own guidelines, the fan pages were created by like-minded people. Even by using multiple accounts or fictitious means to increase postings, the fan groups tried to satisfy the fans themselves most of time. It is a wide difference between the fan groups and the Cyber-warriors that takes money from the ruling government to attack the opposition forces. Moreover, there are many fan groups related to the KMT and DPP, but the Facebook only labeled that the removals were for pro-Han fan pages and groups and hyped its purpose as to “protect the fairness of Taiwan’s elections.” No wonder suspicions have arisen that “foreign forces have interfered in Taiwan’s elections,” and “Facebook has turned green.”

 

According to an opinion poll by United Daily News, 45 to 48 percent of people believe that the DPP is buying cyber-warriors and smearing its opponents to a greater extent, while less than 20 percent of the people polled think KMT’s case is more serious. To contrast the three Internet army incidents, it is not too difficult to see who is endangering the values of democracy and freedom and who is influencing the fairness of elections. 

 

Some people have cultivated cyber-warriors to govern and to campaign in elections, so the opinions on Internet platforms are gradually out of control. If we want to eliminate the harm of cyber-warriors, we should enhance our own capability of reading and understanding information correctly, rather than relying on Internet platforms.

 

From: https://udn.com/news/story/7338/4227480

 Featured Opinion

With Internet Army Backfiring for Tsai, Crisis Emerges for DPP

By Chou Yang Shan

United Daily News, December 14, 2019

 

In last year's local elections, because the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) strongly shielded Wu Yin-ning (former general manager of the Taipei Agricultural Products Marketing Company, who is widely viewed as inept), Han Kuo-yu actually turned the tide and defeated the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate for Kaohsiung mayor against all the odds!  This year, the “cyber-warrior” incident was brought to light, confirming that the DPP is really unscrupulous to support the Internet army for political aims, leading to the tragedy of a senior diplomat committing suicide.

 

However, the DPP administration insisted on its own way and only intended to cut and run; the foreign minister and representative to Japan also only sought to shirk their responsibilities and let the specific cyber-warrior hide out there after. They thought that they could always have their own way no matter what, however, the result is a manifestation of God’s will. President Tsai Ing-wen’s election situation has changed recently, and even the DPP’s legislative election situation may be in crisis.

 

According to a recent assessment by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT), Han is likely to win the presidential election by a small margin; as for legislators’ election, KMT’s odds of victory is also higher.  This is not self-consolation, but out of voter's backlash against the "infinite political calculation" of the ruling DPP!  Voters will keep their eyes open and remove the "detestable DPP!"

 

Faced with such a situation, is the DPP not worried?  Or despite that they want to turn around, they cannot and have to hold on firmly.  The main reason is that they have the consistent stand of "following up the victory with hot pursuit, and the winner is king".  In the face of the protests of the KMT legislators and local councilors, the DPP administration is not treating them with courtesy, but bursts of violence, blunt rejection, and court actions with a view to frustrating the protestors with greater sound volume, and using the Internet army to fight to the end to attain the unthinkable goal of forging an obvious wrong doing into a matter of justification.

 

The political philosophy that the DPP pursues is "winner takes all." This is true for outsiders, and no less among their own people.  Under this premise, they turned President Tsai’s pronounced motto of “humility, humility, then humility” into "no yielding, no yielding, absolutely no yielding!" and put it into full play. This is true in its arbitrary scaling down of Examination Yuan’s organization as well as in the creation of some highly controversial bodies by the Tsai administration to function as enforcers for the government to deprive of KMT’s assets in the name of social justice. It is also ruthless in forcibly carrying out a massive cut in the pensions of the military, civil servants, and teachers/ professors in the name of reform. The government also takes care of any opponents with special laws fast-tracked by the Legislative Yuan, in which the dominates.

 

This is the overbearing style of a revolutionary party arising from the grassroots, but it has its limit. Once the old tricks are exhausted, of course, it may lapse into downfall and failure. Moreover, there are Americans watching over its shoulder. If liberal democracy becomes a "popular dictatorship" and "one-party rule," will the United States move to strike a balance and support a well-matched opposition party? This is the established formula of American democracy.

 

Besides, the United States now looks to the Chinese mainland for favor, such as the first-phase trade agreement recently concluded between China and the United States is also in the national interest of the United States.  The U.S. would probably not allow the DPP to further strain the cross-strait relations to a point that it becomes overwhelming and unmanageable.

 

For this reason, what U.S. President Donald Trump wants most is “Chinese gifts” for Christmas, not the DPP's "threat of war." Voters in Taiwan, of course, are very clear: If the DPP is allowed to be in office for another four years, then the tensions across the Taiwan Strait will be overwhelming.  Is this not the "Hong-Kongization" that Taiwanese should avoid?

 

This is the very subtle change in the external situation at the moment when the general election officially starts.

 

From: https://udn.com/news/story/7339/4227445

Gathering Storm over the Taiwan Strait

By Su Chi

United Daily News, December 8, 2019

 

Due to her dismal domestic performance over the past three years, President Tsai Ing-wen has chosen to build her election campaign upon total hostility toward Mainland China and seizing advantage of the turmoil in Hong Kong. The question is, after a year-long fire and fury, what is next?

At the beginning of October, this author wrote of “five ifs and five sureties” that were deeply troubling: 1) if the November Hong Kong District Council election turned out to be unfavorable for Beijing, 2) if Tsai succeeded in being re-elected, 3) if Beijing concluded that the DPP would enjoy “one-party rule” for a long time to come, 4) if Beijing determined that there is a substantive connection between Tsai’s re-election and the US, and 5) if Xi Jinping were to come under enormous domestic pressure due to the failure of his Taiwan and Hong Kong policies, then the possibility of something “earthshaking” occurring in the Taiwan Strait would increase.

As of now, the first of these “ifs,” concerning Hong Kong, has already happened, and the other four are gaining in severity and depth. As for the “if” regarding Taiwan’s election in January 2020, if Tsai Ing-wen (who has pursued a barely concealed agenda for Taiwan Independence over the first three years of her term in office followed by an entire year’s worth of overt invective against China) and her partner on the DPP ticket, William Lai (who styles himself a "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker") win the election, I am afraid no one on the Mainland will give credence to the hollow claims of her “goodwill” anymore. They will be utterly convinced that Ms. Tsai and Mr. Lai are dead set on a course toward Taiwan Independence.

As for the "if" regarding the DPP's “one-party rule,” one need just look at how Tsai has kept an iron grip on the executive and legislative branches of government, having them do her bidding at will in the last three years. The reach of the DPP has even extended into education, the media, the military, and what should be strictly non-partisan government institutions, such as the Central Election Commission, the judicial, supervision and examination branches of government, and the National Communications Commission. If Tsai is re-elected, Taiwan will most likely enter into a new dynasty, if not a new nation.

As for the "if" regarding Beijing’s perception of the U.S. role, recent statements by relevant US officials and think tanks, the brash ideas of members of Congress, and the odd Wang Liqiang case all reveal that Tsai and some of her American friends are actively playing the American and Taiwan cards. If Tsai is re-elected, Beijing may well feel that it has not only “lost Taiwan,” but also suffered a major setback in the US-China relationship.

The fifth "if" is most crucial. Should his Taiwan and Hong Kong policies fail, Xi Jinping will be caught in an awkward position. Seemingly at the apex of power, Xi may still be vulnerable to other forces ganging up on him, using Taiwan as a pretext. Otherwise more inclined toward peaceful reunification, Xi may feel compelled to do something to deflect the pressure.

What makes the unknown "ifs" so dangerous are the "five sureties" that lie behind them: 1) the Chinese Communist Party is supremely confident that China’s military might is on par with that of the United States in the Strait, 2) President Tsai is firmly convinced that the Chinese Communist Party is not spoiling for a fight and that, in any case, the United States will come to the rescue; 3) Tsai Ing-wen will do anything it takes to secure a second term, and ditto Xi Jinping for his third term; 4) there are no high-level communication between the two sides of the Strait; and 5) the “strategic dialogue” between the US and China has been suspended over a year. During the past few decades, the "five ifs" and "five sureties" have never fallen into complete alignment. Unfortunately next year they may all line up in a perfect storm, every single one of them.

If Tsai is re-elected, next year the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will be like two goats in a faceoff on a narrow wooden bridge, one DPP and one CCP, without any buffer such as the HK Government in the middle. One of the goats (Tsai Ing-wen) said five years ago that "if we win (the election), even China will change its course to accommodate the DPP." Since then she has indeed not backed off one bit, and doing so next year upon reelection appears even more impossible. The other goat (Xi Jinping), stronger and sturdier, will certainly not back down or countenance inaction. Both goats most likely will barrel toward each other, believing they will win. Both blare their teeth, bluster and posture provocatively at the other without actually communicating. And one of them even has cheerleaders on the sidelines egging it on.

We only need to look back at 2008, when most of the "five ifs" and "five sureties" had yet to appear. Even though Ma Ying-jeou's odds of winning were extremely favorable, Beijing still mobilized a large force across the Strait in preparation for an attack on Taiwan depending on the election outcome. How does this allow us any optimism about the Taiwan Strait next year?

An increasing number of international experts have expressed concern over this situation. Former Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert O. Work of the U.S. wrote in June this year that the Pentagon had simulated several US-China wargames, all of which showed U.S. defeat . In September, the New York Times revealed the number of wargames on Taiwan scenario. The Pentagon conducted 18 wargames in recent years and the U.S. lost 18 times.

In June, US Department of Defense officially released its “Indo-Pacific Strategy Report" stating that “If our competitors decide to advance their interests through force, they are likely to enjoy a local military advantage at the onset of conflict. In a fait accompli scenario, competitors would seek to employ their capabilities quickly to achieve limited objectives and forestall a response from the United States, and its allies and partners." This means that the current political situation in Taiwan would be completely changed before American intervention could take place. The RAND Corporation, the University of Sydney and other think tanks have all reached the same conclusion.

In mid-November, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission established by authority of the US Congress submitted a more than 500-page report to Congress after holding eight public hearings and consulting 77 experts. The report noted that, “The cross-Strait military balance has decidedly shifted in China’s favor in recent years.” It also asserted that “Beijing could decide to initiate a military conflict even if it calculated the United States would intervene due to its confidence it would be able to effectively deter or defeat intervening US military forces.” The 2019 “Report to Congress” further stated, “The altered military balance has led China to act toward Taiwan with growing impunity, increasing the incidence of aggressive acts such as the March 2019 median line crossing. This could result in an accident or miscalculation leading to unintended conflict, or even see Beijing seek an outright military confrontation to press for resolution of its political differences with Taipei.”

If these are not warning signs, then what are they?

No wonder Foreign Minister Joseph Wu in an exclusive interview with Reuters on November 7th of this year also declared that "…we need to be very careful" lest Beijing use force against Taiwan. Note, however, that he merely attributed this potential use of military force to "an economic slowdown" or "internal instability" on the Chinese mainland, not the DPP itself.

The Taiwan public, who has enjoyed modest blessedness for quite a while, remains totally oblivious to the fact that the situation in the Taiwan Strait is more dangerous than ever. However, the Tsai Administration, which is fully aware of the situation, still continues to goad the people of Taiwan into taking high risks. All one can do is gasp in despair!

(The author is the chairman of the Taipei Forum and former secretary general of the National Security Council)

From: https://udn.com/news/story/11321/4212770

December 9: The incident involving Internet celebrity Yang Hui-ju and the suicide of a former ambassador continues to see negative effects. The Kuomintang (KMT) caucus of the Legislative Yuan alleged that Hung Yao-fu, who is a staffer of Legislative Yuan Speaker Su Jia-chyuan and campaign manager of President Tsai Ing-wen, as the hidden hand. KMT legislators revealed Yang has a group of confidants in the central government as her support, including the staff of Speaker Su and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Kuan Bi-ling. KMT legislators also suspect that the Chang Chia-ling, who is director of Speaker Su’s office, is another hidden figure.

December 10: The Legislative Yuan passed the amended Organic Act of the Examination Yuan, reducing the number of Examination Yuan members from 19 to between seven and nine, while their terms will be reduced from six years to four. DPP Legislator and party whip Ker Chien-ming said that the “down-sizing” of the Executive Yuan is to minimize the harm of deformed constitutional institutions. Examination Yuan President Wu Jin-lin expressed regret, and secretary-general Lee Chi-hsuan believes that the move will have a negative impact on the future administration of the Examination Yuan.

December 11: During a radio interview, Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je confirmed that if nothing unexpected happens, he will run for president in 2024. Ko said that he decided not to run in 2020 because there is still work to do as mayor and more than NT$20 billion (about US$664 million) of ongoing construction. If he were to run, Ko would come away empty-handed in terms of municipal governance and the election campaign. When he steps down as mayor in 2020, Ko will be able to concentrate on running for president.

December 14: Far Eastern Air Transport (FAT), a Taiwanese airline, announced without warning that it would suspend operations from December 13. Consequently, some 500 passengers were stranded overseas, and 1,024 employees were suddenly unemployed. In a press conference, Chairman Chang Kang-wei explained to the public that the suspension was only a “mistake.” After consultations, three groups of investors agreed to finance NT$1 billion (about US$33 million). Chang hopes that the Civil Aeronautics Administration will restore FAT flights. The Taipei District Prosecutors Office ordered a restriction on Chang’s departure and residence, so as to ensure the rights of passengers and employees and facilitate further investigation.

December 14: Explosives were placed near the gate of a KMT branch office in Houbi District in Tainan. The suspect claimed that the explosives contain triacetone triperoxide (TATP), but he failed to launch an explosion by remote. After three waves of assaults and exchange of some 200 bullets in a residence in Lingya District, Kaohisung, the suspect was shot and arrested. This is the first time that explosives have come into play in Taiwan’s electoral history.

Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation, Taipei Forum, and Association of Foreign Relations that provides coverage and perspectives into the latest developments in Taiwan.

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