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Hong Kong Protests May Impact Taiwan's Upcoming Elections |
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Photo from: The Storm Media
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Taiwan Presidential Election Draws Near while U.S. Hostility Towards China Becomes Mainstream. Chao says, “The anti-extradition bill protests are not merely problems concerning Hong Kong.”
The Storm Media, August 16, 2019
The prolonged demonstrations have spilled over to Taiwan’s two major political parties and influenced their positions on the issues surrounding Hong Kong. Chao Chun-Shan, Principal Consultant of the Foundation on Asia-Pacific Peace Studies and also Honorary Professor at Tamkang University, believes that China has its own presumption that there are outside powers, mostly the United States and Taiwan, involved in the current difficult situation in Hong Kong. Therefore, as China deals with the Hong Kong problem, it is also handling its complications with the United States and with Taiwan. Unfortunately, with America trending hostility towards China coupling with Trump running for reelection and the Taiwan presidential election also coming up next year, the situation has become even trickier for China.
During the interview with the Storm Media on August 14, Chao expressed his concerns on the deteriorating situation in Hong Kong. He points out the problem lies in China suspecting that there are outside powers involved. The current protests can be compared with the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, which started with demonstrations led by students in Beijing appealing for freedom and democracy, but later shifted to demanding the Communist Party to step down. When the initial student and professor-led protests were coupled with the addition of workers and party members, the entire situation changed.
Dispatch of Military is “backed up by law”
Chao worries Hong Kong circumstances may worsen
According to Chao’s evaluation, the circumstances surrounding the Tiananmen Square protests thirty years ago are very different than the current situation. However, it appears that the initial appeal of Hong Kong protesters has transformed firstly from merely discontentment with the extradition bill to requesting direct election and democracy, and most recently to dissatisfaction with the Chinese Communist Party and “one country, two systems”. Participants of the protest were originally Hong Kong civilians, but now even public servants and suspected outside powers have also joined in the movement. In other words, when the appeal changed, so did the participants, which raises much concern. At the same time, according to the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong government has the right to ask the People’s Liberation Army to maintain order and peace. With the law on the Hong Kong government’s side, the protests today are very different than those pertaining to student activism in 1989. For this reason, Chao does not disregard the possibility of the current situation worsening and hopes that China can peacefully resolve Hong Kong people’s discontentment.
Is suspending travel to Taiwan targeted towards the Tsai administration?
Chao believes that “the case isn’t as simple as it seems.”
Apropos Taiwan, China has suspended individual visits and reduced group visits to Taiwan, leading to all kinds of interpretations. Chao points out that on the surface, China’s action is targeting the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for political reasons. However, Tsai administration interprets the suspension as an indication that China is afraid of its people gaining knowledge of Hong Kong’s recent oppositions. Also, some Chinese interpret it as a prevention of its people going to the “no-go area”. Since the Taiwan presidential election is coming up, the permit freeze would be a precautionary measure so that incidents such as the “Chou Tzu-yu flag incident” do not reoccur and become a major problem.
Nevertheless, Chao also believes that there’s underlying meaning behind China suspending travel permits. With China holding onto the belief that Taiwan and especially the United States are involved in Hong Kong’s protests, the suspension may be a show of control, implying China’s firm initiative when it comes to the Taiwan issue. Needless to say, the economy and society in Taiwan will be impacted by the suspension of individual travelers and limited group travels. China’s decision to ban travelers to Taiwan, particularly not differentiating cities governed by the pan-Blue or pan-Green coalition, leads to Chao’s conclusion that “some of the actions are actually taken for the United States to see.”
From: https://www.storm.mg/article/1596798
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Protest Against Extradition Law in Hong Kong not Tsai’s Cash Machine
United Daily News, August 17, 2019
Protests against the extradition law in Hong Kong have become more and more furious, sending shock waves to China which has implemented the so-called "One Country, Two Systems" in Hong Kong for years. Meanwhile, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in Taiwan has “expressed support” for the protests, which has aroused vigilance from Beijing. However, the anti-delivery is not a cash machine of President Tsai Ing-wen. If her drawing Taiwan into the Hong Kong protests is motivated only by personal gain in the upcoming presidential election, President Tsai may end up paying a far higher cost.
The initial appeal of the anti-extradition campaign run counter to the Hong Kong Government's amendments to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance (FOO). The demonstrators feared that if said amendments were to pass, those dissidents such as political prisoners passing through the city could be arrested and sent for trial to mainland China. As a result, "One Country, Two Systems" modality will become but an empty shell. However, the initial appeal has produced spill-over effects, some demonstrators even go to great lengths to shout such slogans as Hong Kong independence or revolution, challenging the bottom line of Beijing’s sovereignty over the region.
President Tsai has repeatedly voiced strong support in public to the protests in Hong Kong. She has stated hopes that "Today’s Taiwan” will become “Tomorrow’s Hong Kong” and instructed the related government sector to provide "humanitarian relief" to people of Hong Kong. She has also declared that "Taiwan will not become a second Hong Kong, as long as I am in office."
From China’s standpoint, Hong Kong has been returned to Chinese sovereignty for years. Beijing has implemented "One Country, Two Systems" in Hong Kong which is well within the territorial sovereignty of China. President Tsai’s " Today’s Taiwan" will become "Tomorrow’s Hong Kong " statement impliedly instigates Hong Kong to break away from China; other statement by her that "Taiwan will not be the second Hong Kong” is obviously hyping up the anti-extradition law protests for the coming the presidential election.
Beijing’s caution against Taiwan’s instigation in Hong Kong has become clearer and more self-evident. For example, Mr. Tung Chee-wah, Vice Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, pointed out that Taiwan and the United States are calling the shots behind the scenes in the anti-extradition campaigns. The People’s Daily claimed that the evidence of Taiwan’s involvement in the fight against extradition is conclusive. Moreover, the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO) of the State Council directly accused Chairman Cho Jung-tai of the DPP for spouting a load of nonsense for the purposes of adding fuel to the protests and throwing Hong Kong into confusion.
According to the statement of the TAO, the recent situation in Hong Kong has been complicated and severe. "The DDP and its authorities have played a very disgraceful role in it." China sternly warned the DPP and its authorities not to use their underhand tactics in Hong Kong, or they will take the consequences.
China has determined that there is DPP factor behind the chaotic situation in Hong Kong. This indicates that the current state of cross-strait relations is still in the worst shape. After China’s suspension of independent travel by mainland tourists to Taiwan and boycott of the annual Golden Horse Awards, and factoring in Taiwan’s suspected involvement behind the protests in Hong Kong, the cross-strait relationship is sure to spirally deteriorate. Beijing is expected to impose even more pressure upon Taiwan as a result.
Both the Pan-Blue and Pan-Green camps in Taiwan have expressed concern about the future of Hong Kong. If based on friendship and universal values, the Tsai administration’s support for freedom and democracy and call upon the Hong Kong authorities to engage in dialogue with the protesters are quite understandable However, if the DPP is only taking advantage of the Hong Kong protests as a political cash machine for the 2020 presidential election, the Tsai administration will eventually face graver consequences of crisis in the Taiwan Strait despite its fleeting gains in the polls.
From: https://udn.com/news/story/7339/3993822
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The Wise Choice Before the Head-on Confrontation Across the Taiwan Strait
By Yang-Sun Chou, professor of National Quemoy University
China Times, August 15, 2019
More and more reports and analyses show that, facing the challenge of the independence movement in Taiwan, China has decided to take a strong posture to not only halt independent travel of mainland tourists to Taiwan but also even go further to activate the relevant mechanism of the “Anti-Secession Law” to adopt measures of reunification by force without hesitation even if this would lead to a reversal of peaceful situation cross the Taiwan Strait.
On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government under the threat of reunification by force from the mainland will by no means change its firm position of Taiwan independence development.
Recently, the DPP administration even invoked upon Taiwanese voters to “Give Tsai Ing-wen another four years so that she will overhaul Taiwan”. Obviously, this is a policy of no return and DPP government tries to create a “fait accompli”, without hesitation, even at risk of an imminent threat of war in the Taiwan Strait.
These two polemic positions of “without hesitation” are precisely the driver for a head-on confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. For mainland China, Chinese leaders took it as intolerable and leaving no room for other option: For Taiwan, DPP administration regarded it as a must price for its victory in upcoming election. Prodded by Hong Kong’s mass rally demonstration of anti- proposed bill of extradition of criminal suspect to the mainland, many young Taiwanese were willing to go to war. A recent poll conducted by Taiwan Democracy Foundation revealed that 57.4% of the interviewed responded that they were willing to fight to defend Taiwan if mainland China were to use force to reunify Taiwan in the event Taiwan declared formal independence.
Thus, a holistic showdown over reunification by force and Taiwan independence between two sides of Taiwan Strait portends unavoidable. However, there is one other crucial factor yet unclear, that is, is the United States to firmly support Taiwan independence and determined to assist Taiwan fighting the war? And is Taiwan able to sustain its force and win victory during about half a month time span as U.S. military assistance is on its way?
What is even more crucible is once the war starts, will Taiwan be able to maintain domestic stability and solidarity? Is the DPP able to continue its governance? Or is Taiwan to face a total collapse? How is Taiwan to identify its entity in its relations with mainland China? Will Taiwan become another “new and independent country”? All these issues are sure to be toughest post-war challenges but no one can foresee an optimistic solution.
For Taiwan, a confrontation between two sides of the Taiwan Strait will result in a life and death ordeal. It signifies not only a trial of freedom and democracy but also economic depression and plight of livelihood. The price will be unfathomable. For China, it will be a test of ending the seven- decade-long civil war and will in turn affect the development of national reunification and open reform, thus a major choice to make. For America, it will be an uphill war, the scale of it will be far larger than the wars of Afghanistan, Iran or Syria. If it succeeds, the price for the United States to pay on human and material resource will also be unfathomable. If it fails, the US will lose its status of superpower and head to decline then fade away.
Henceforth, in the triangle relations of the America, China, and Taiwan, the wisest choice is to prevent this war from happening. In Taiwan, voters should vote out Taiwan independence; on mainland China, the authorities should try all peaceful means to reject Taiwan independence; in America, the government should exert pressure through diplomacy to deter Taiwan independence.
Of course, the course of human development is not necessarily induced by wise decision but an erroneous decision might impact for generations to come and even lead countries to perish. As a consequence, if the three parties involved all opt to go ahead with their own way without hesitation, “even if a breakout of war” then they have to bear the consequence.
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20190815004628-262105?chdtv |
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Taiwan Weekly is a newsletter released every week by Fair Winds Foundation, Taipei Forum, and Association of Foreign Relations that provides coverage and perspectives into the latest developments in Taiwan.
The conclusions and recommendations of any Taiwan Weekly article are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the institutions that publish the newsletter.
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